The largest proved hydrocarbon inventory in Alberta and the base load of provincial royalty income.
Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River hold 1.8 trillion barrels of bitumen in place, of which 167 billion barrels are proved. Mining (overburden under 75 m) and SAGD / CSS in situ (150–500 m) produced 3.7 million bbl/d in 2025. Growth to 2035 depends on export pipeline capacity, the WCS differential and delivering Pathways carbon capture.
Crude bitumen — proved reserves167.3 Bbbl · Remaining established reserves · 31 Dec 2023AGS/AER INF 161 (McDaniel) ↗
Crude bitumen — initial in place1,845 Bbbl · Initial in place · 31 Dec 2023AGS/AER INF 161 ↗
Cold Lake in situ bitumen (share of 153 Bbbl in situ P+P)153 Bbbl in situ P+P (province) · Remaining established reserves · 31 Dec 2023AER ST98 2026 reserves ↗
Live Atlas valuation (reference scenario)
3 subsurface assets priced by the Atlas engine: economic value $34T. Move the Scenario Laboratory sliders on the map to reprice.
McMurray Formation (Athabasca)2.25M MMbbl in place · recoverable $15T · economic $13T (87% clears break-even)
Clearwater Formation (Cold Lake)2.05M MMbbl in place · recoverable $14T · economic $12T (87% clears break-even)
Peace River Bluesky / Gething1.54M MMbbl in place · recoverable $10T · economic $9T (87% clears break-even)
GEOLOGY: WHAT MAKES A DEPOSIT MORE LIKELY
Lower Cretaceous fluvial–estuarine sands charged by long-distance migration from the deep basin and biodegraded to bitumen.
Net pay above 15 m with bitumen saturation over 7 wt %
Mineable where overburden is under 75 m; SAGD where 150–500 m with continuous caprock (Clearwater shale)
Few mud plugs, lean zones, top-gas or bottom-water thief zones
No Prairie Evaporite karst collapse beneath the pad
Prospectivity envelopes on the map (1)
Athabasca McMurray mineable and SAGD fairwayProducing / drill-proven
Lower Cretaceous McMurray fluvial-estuarine sand saturated with biodegraded oil · 0–500 m
McMurray net pay > 15 m with bitumen > 7 wt %
Mineable where overburden < 75 m; SAGD where 150–500 m with few mud plugs / lean zones
Top-gas, bottom-water and karst (Prairie Evaporite dissolution) are the key hazards
Source: AER ST98 oil sands reserves; Alberta oil sands area boundaries.
DATASETS THAT TEST THE TARGET
Stack these layers on the integrated map
Discriminating datasets first, then every catalogued public dataset tagged to this commodity. Verified endpoints draw directly; link-only entries open the publisher page.
Oil sands areas & royalty regime boundariesAlberta Energy and Minerals · Mineral tenure · drawable · verifiedWhich tenure and royalty regime applies.Source ↗
Surface mineable oil sands (local GeoJSON)Government of Alberta · Mineral tenure · drawable · verifiedOverburden under 75 m: the mining fairway and the froth-tailings heavy-mineral source.Source ↗
Bedrock topography (DIG 2020-0022 tiles)Alberta Geological Survey · Structure, depth & isopach · drawable · verifiedBuried valleys and bedrock highs: where cover is thin (cheap stripping) and where preglacial gravels pool.Source ↗
Oil sands projects, schemes & development areas (OASIS)Alberta Energy and Minerals · Infrastructure · drawable · verifiedApproved project footprints — the mines and SAGD schemes whose tailings and produced water host by-product minerals.Source ↗
Oil sands agreementsAlberta Energy and Minerals · Mineral tenure · drawable · verifiedOil sands rights; nearly all of the Athabasca mineable area is leased.Source ↗
Active producing wells (Alberta Energy Geoview)Alberta Energy and Minerals · Wells · link only · verifiedWhere hydrocarbons are flowing today: live reservoir pressure, produced-water (brine) access, helium-bearing gas streams and infrastructure for re-entry.Source ↗
Oil sands lease under the Oil Sands Tenure Regulation (Alberta Energy and Minerals).
Royalty
Pre-payout 1–9 % of gross revenue (sliding with WTI C$55–120); post-payout the greater of 1–9 % gross or 25–40 % net.
Lead time
5–8 years greenfield in situ; 2–3 years for brownfield expansions
Permitting path
AER project approval under the Oil Sands Conservation Act
EPEA approval and water licence
Directive 085 tailings management
Indigenous consultation via the Aboriginal Consultation Office
Infrastructure needs
Diluent supply (condensate imports)
Export pipeline capacity
Natural gas for steam
CO2 trunk line (Pathways)
Active players
Canadian NaturalSuncorCenovus (incl. MEG)ImperialConocoPhillips CanadaStrathconaAthabasca Oil
Recommended next steps
Track Pathways binding agreements (Nov 2026) and FID
Model optimization projects vs greenfield under the WCS slider
Map Grosmont carbonate pilots as the next resource tier
MINES, PILOTS & PROJECTS (8)
Who is already working this commodity in Alberta
Suncor Base Plant (Millennium / North Steepbank)Oil sands mine · Suncor · ≈260 kbbl/d bitumen (5-yr avg); mines wind down early 2030sOperating (2026)Base Mine Extension (225 kbbl/d froth) proposed as replacement; Upgrader 1 had a 67-day outage in 2025.Source ↗
Syncrude Mildred Lake (North Mine + MLX-West)Oil sands mine · Syncrude (Suncor-operated) · Upgrader ≈335 kbbl/d SCO (2025 record)Operating (2026)Mildred Lake Extension West first oil April 2025 extends life ≈14 years.Source ↗
Muskeg River (Albian)Oil sands mine · Canadian Natural · Nameplate 183 kbbl/dOperating (2026)100 % CNRL after the Shell asset swap.Source ↗
Jackpine (Albian)Oil sands mine · Canadian Natural · Nameplate 145 kbbl/dOperating (2026)Froth-treatment tailings here and at the other mines carry 43–72 kt/yr of monazite plus Ti–Zr heavy minerals (AGS INF 157).Source ↗