Metallurgical (coking) coal

POTENTIAL & KNOWN RESERVES IN ALBERTA

Large Foothills coking-coal endowment; provincial reserve figure dated (33 Gt all ranks, 2016)

Confidence: Indicated

• 2024 marketable met coal0.54 MtAll from Grande Cache (CST Canada Coal), to South Korea; −24 % y/yAER ST98 2026 — coal ↗
• Provincial coal reserves33 Gt (2016, all ranks)Not updated by AER since; treat as datedAER ST98 2016 infographic ↗
• Grassy Mountain plan≈2.5 Mt/yrExploration approved May 2025; integrated application targeted end-2026Pass Herald ↗

Where it occurs

• Grande Cache (Mine 14, Summit)
• Grassy Mountain / Crowsnest
• Cadomin–Luscar (Cardinal River, closed 2020)
• Cheviot
• Blackstone

Live Atlas valuation (reference scenario)

1 subsurface asset priced by the Atlas engine: economic value $20B. Move the Scenario Laboratory sliders on the map to reprice.

• Coal Valley (Coking Coal)620 Mt in place · recoverable $21B · economic $20B (95% clears break-even)

GEOLOGY: WHAT MAKES A DEPOSIT MORE LIKELY

Medium- to low-volatile bituminous seams 3–12 m thick, thickened in Foothills anticlines and thrust sheets.

Host formations

Gates Formation (Luscar Group) · Mist Mountain Formation (Kootenay Group)

Depth range

0–600 m

Favourable conditions

• Structural thickening that allows open-pit or highwall geometry
• Low sulphur and phosphorus coking quality
• Rail access to Ridley / Westshore terminals

Prospectivity envelopes on the map (1)

• Inner Foothills coking-coal belt (Grande Cache–Cadomin–Crowsnest)Producing / drill-proven
  Lower Cretaceous Luscar / Kootenay Group bituminous coal in thrust-folded seams · 0–600 m
  • Gates and Mist Mountain formation seams 3–12 m thick, medium-volatile coking quality
  • Structural thickening in anticlines allows open-pit and underground mining
  • CN rail to Prince Rupert / Vancouver terminals
  Source: Vista, Cheviot (closed), Grassy Mountain (under review), Grande Cache — Coal Policy 2022 restrictions apply.

DATASETS THAT TEST THE TARGET

Stack these layers on the integrated map

Discriminating datasets first, then every catalogued public dataset tagged to this commodity. Verified endpoints draw directly; link-only entries open the publisher page.

• Coal mine boundaries (Alberta Energy)Alberta Energy and Minerals · Coal · drawable · verifiedWhere coal has been or is being mined; coal-zone geology itself is published in AGS reports, not as a service.Source ↗
• Bedrock geology of Alberta (Map 600 tiles)Alberta Geological Survey · Bedrock geology · drawable · verifiedWhich formation is at the bedrock surface: the first screen for outcropping targets such as silica sand, limestone, ironstone, bentonite, ammonite shell and shallow coal.Source ↗
• Coal agreementsAlberta Energy and Minerals · Mineral tenure · drawable · verifiedExisting coal rights are the only route to a new mine under the Coal Industry Modernization Initiative.Source ↗
• Parks & protected areas (by designation)Alberta Forestry, Parks and Tourism · Land constraints · drawable · verifiedHard no-go areas (e.g. Peace Point gypsum inside Wood Buffalo National Park).Source ↗

VALUE & VALUE CHAIN

Premium low-vol HCC FOB Australia: US$265.5/t (24 Sep 2026)

August 2026 average US$232/t

Indexed to oil in the Atlas as an industrial-demand proxy; real pricing follows Australian HCC benchmarks.

Value chain

1. Open-pit / underground mining
2. Wash plant
3. CN rail to Prince Rupert / Vancouver
4. Coke ovens → blast-furnace steel (Korea, Japan, India)

Industries and products that rely on it

DEMAND & PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS

What the forecasts say

• IEA Coal 2025Global met coal −5 % by 2030; India the growth marketIEA Coal 2025 ↗

Key risks

• Legislative implementation of CIMI in 2026
• Water licence challenges
• Steel decarbonization reducing long-run demand

DEVELOPMENT: TENURE, ROYALTY, PERMITTING

What a developer needs to know

Tenure

Coal lease under the Coal Conservation Act — new Crown leases not being accepted (Feb 2025).

Royalty

1 % of mine-mouth revenue pre-payout; post-payout 1 % plus 13 % of net revenue; CIMI signals higher rates for new mines.

Lead time

8–12 years greenfield; 3–5 years restart on existing leases

Permitting path

1. AER Coal Conservation Act approval
2. Provincial EIA; federal IAA for large pits
3. Water Act licence
4. Eastern Slopes land-use category rules

Infrastructure needs

• Rail loadout
• Wash plant
• Selenium water treatment

Active players

Recommended next steps

• Track Northback integrated application (end-2026)
• Screen underground-amenable seams on existing leases
• Quantify selenium treatment cost in the feasibility model

MINES, PILOTS & PROJECTS (4)

Who is already working this commodity in Alberta

• Grande Cache (No. 8 Mine)Coal mine · CST Canada Coal · ≈0.5–1.3 Mt/yr met coal to South KoreaOperating (2026)Alberta's only producing met-coal mine; operational disruptions in 2025.Source ↗
• Summit Mine 14 (underground)Coal mine · Summit Coal (Valory Resources) · ≈1.2–1.3 Mt/yr planned; opening ≈2027Permitting (2026)AER approvals 24 Sep 2025; Court of Appeal granted leave to appeal 25 Nov 2025.Source ↗
• Cheviot / Cardinal RiverCoal mine · Teck → Elk Valley Resources (Glencore) · Closed June 2020; ≥C$200 M reclamationClosed (recent) (2026)Active reclamation.Source ↗
• Grassy MountainCoal mine · Northback Holdings (Hancock) · Redesigned ≈2.5 Mt/yr; application expected end-2026Permitting (2026)AER approved exploration and water diversion 15 May 2025; water licence contested.Source ↗