Thermal coal

POTENTIAL & KNOWN RESERVES IN ALBERTA

Huge Plains subbituminous endowment with no domestic market; Coalspur Vista exports 7–8 Mt/yr

Confidence: Measured

• 2024 thermal bituminous output7.0 MtExports: South Korea 4.0 Mt, Japan 2.4 MtAER ST98 2025 §7 ↗
• Vista raw coal Jan–Oct 2025≈8.0 MtAER ST26, Oct 2025 ↗
• Subbituminous (Plains)≈0 since June 2024Genesee mine closed with coal-power phase-outAER ST98 2026 — coal ↗

Where it occurs

• Vista & Coal Valley (Coalspur Formation, Hinton)
• Highvale / Genesee / Paintearth / Sheerness (closed Plains mines)
• Dodds (small)

Official reserve pins on the map

• Coal reserves, all ranks (dated)33 Gt (2016 figure, not updated) · Remaining established reserves · 2016AER ST98 2016 infographic ↗
• Vista / Obed coalfield resource1,322 Mt · Resource estimate · 2024Global Energy Monitor ↗

Live Atlas valuation (reference scenario)

2 subsurface assets priced by the Atlas engine: economic value $147B. Move the Scenario Laboratory sliders on the map to reprice.

• Plains Coal Measures17.5K Mt in place · recoverable $140B · economic $127B (91% clears break-even)
• Coal Valley (Coking Coal)620 Mt in place · recoverable $21B · economic $20B (95% clears break-even)

GEOLOGY: WHAT MAKES A DEPOSIT MORE LIKELY

Flat-lying to gently folded Paleocene–Cretaceous seams mined by truck-shovel and dragline.

Host formations

Coalspur Formation · Scollard / Ardley coal zone · Horseshoe Canyon

Depth range

0–200 m

Favourable conditions

• Seams over 3 m within 100 m of surface
• High-volatile bituminous rank for export (Hinton) rather than subbituminous (Plains)
• Rail access to Ridley Terminals

Prospectivity envelopes on the map (1)

• Plains subbituminous coal (Ardley / Horseshoe Canyon)Highly favourable
  Flat-lying Paleocene–Upper Cretaceous coal zones at shallow depth · 0–200 m
  • Ardley and Drumheller coal zones 1–6 m seams within 100 m of surface
  • Massive tonnage but domestic thermal demand ended with the 2023/2024 coal-power phase-out
  • Coalbed methane, gasification and critical-element recovery are the remaining use cases
  Source: Highvale / Genesee / Sheerness / Paintearth mines closed with coal power.

DATASETS THAT TEST THE TARGET

Stack these layers on the integrated map

Discriminating datasets first, then every catalogued public dataset tagged to this commodity. Verified endpoints draw directly; link-only entries open the publisher page.

• Coal mine boundaries (Alberta Energy)Alberta Energy and Minerals · Coal · drawable · verifiedWhere coal has been or is being mined; coal-zone geology itself is published in AGS reports, not as a service.Source ↗
• Bedrock geology of Alberta (Map 600 tiles)Alberta Geological Survey · Bedrock geology · drawable · verifiedWhich formation is at the bedrock surface: the first screen for outcropping targets such as silica sand, limestone, ironstone, bentonite, ammonite shell and shallow coal.Source ↗
• Coal agreementsAlberta Energy and Minerals · Mineral tenure · drawable · verifiedExisting coal rights are the only route to a new mine under the Coal Industry Modernization Initiative.Source ↗

VALUE & VALUE CHAIN

Newcastle 6,000 kcal: ≈US$144/t (mid-Sep 2026)

Gas-linked in the Atlas as a fuel-switching proxy.

Value chain

1. Truck-shovel mining
2. Wash plant
3. CN rail to Ridley
4. Asian power utilities

Industries and products that rely on it

DEMAND & PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS

What the forecasts say

• IEAGlobal coal demand peaks 2025 and declines to 8.58 Gt by 2030IEA Coal 2025 ↗

Key risks

• Seaborne price collapse
• Federal export restrictions
• Coalspur balance-sheet history (creditor protection)

DEVELOPMENT: TENURE, ROYALTY, PERMITTING

What a developer needs to know

Tenure

Coal lease (existing leases only; new Crown leases paused).

Royalty

Bituminous 1 % pre-payout / 1 % + 13 % net post-payout; subbituminous C$0.55/t.

Lead time

3–5 years for expansions on existing leases

Permitting path

1. AER Coal Conservation Act
2. EPEA and provincial EIA (Vista Ph II complete 25 Jun 2026)
3. Federal IAA where designated

Infrastructure needs

• Rail loadouts
• Wash plant
• Reclamation security

Active players

Recommended next steps

• Model Vista Phase II under a Newcastle price slider
• Inventory Plains coal for gasification / critical-element recovery rather than combustion

MINES, PILOTS & PROJECTS (6)

Who is already working this commodity in Alberta

• Vista (Phase I + Phase II)Coal mine · Coalspur Mines (Bighorn / Cline Group) · ≈7.5–9 Mt/yr run-of-mine; export to Japan & KoreaOperating (2026)AER granted Phase II permits 20 Jul 2026 (+630 ha); provincial EIA complete June 2026; planned closure 2032.Source ↗
• Coal Valley (Pit 26)Coal mine · Prairie Mines & Royalty (Westmoreland) · ≈1.6 Mt run-of-mine (2025), low rateOperating (2026)Care-and-maintenance 2020; 68 ha Pit 26 extension applied 2025.Source ↗
• Dodds Coal Mine (Ryley)Coal mine · Dodds Coal Mining · Very small domestic heating coalOperating (2026)Only Plains coal mine still producing after the coal-power phase-out.Source ↗
• GeneseeCoal mine · Westmoreland / Capital Power · Closed June 2024Closed (recent) (2026)Closed with the Genesee gas conversion; fly ash up to 1,399 ppm REO characterized (AGS INF 157).Source ↗
• HighvaleCoal mine · TransAlta · Closed Dec 2021; reclamation to 2046Closed (recent) (2026)Formerly Canada's largest surface coal mine; fly ash now beneficiated for cement (Lafarge / TransAlta).Source ↗
• Sheerness (humalite)Coal mine · Westmoreland · Humalite soil amendment since 2021; coal closedOperating (2026)7,000 ha under reclamation.Source ↗