Potash

POTENTIAL & KNOWN RESERVES IN ALBERTA

No defined Alberta potash resource; K-rich brines up to 28,800 mg/L K

Confidence: Speculative

• Prairie Evaporite depth in Alberta≈200 m (NE) to 1,800 m (SW)Potash salts confined to the Saskatchewan sub-basinAgrium SEC filing ↗
• Brine potassium>10,000 mg/L K common; permit-well samples 20,773 and 28,808 mg/LAGS OFR 2009 / MAR 20110008 ↗

Where it occurs

• Cold Lake – Lloydminster Prairie Evaporite (800–1,200 m)
• East-central Alberta salt edge
• Potassium-rich Devonian brines (province-wide)

Live Atlas valuation (reference scenario)

1 subsurface asset priced by the Atlas engine: economic value $950B. Move the Scenario Laboratory sliders on the map to reprice.

• Prairie Evaporite (Potash)22K Mt in place · recoverable $1T · economic $950B (80% clears break-even)

GEOLOGY: WHAT MAKES A DEPOSIT MORE LIKELY

Marine evaporite potash (sylvinite / carnallite) at the top of thick halite, or potassium recovered from bittern brines.

Host formations

Prairie Evaporite · Devonian brines (Leduc, Beaverhill Lake)

Depth range

800–2K m

Favourable conditions

• Prairie Evaporite thicker than 100 m with preserved upper members
• Gamma-ray (K-40) response on legacy well logs
• Away from AGS-mapped dissolution fronts
• Depth suited to solution mining (1,000–2,000 m)

Prospectivity envelopes on the map (1)

• Prairie Evaporite potash edge (east-central Alberta)Permissive, under-explored
  Sylvinite / carnallite beds at the western edge of the Saskatchewan potash basin · 2K–2K m
  • Prairie Evaporite thickness > 100 m with preserved upper potash members
  • Depth 1,500–2,000 m — too deep for conventional mining, suits solution mining
  • Away from salt-dissolution collapse fronts mapped by AGS
  Source: AGS Prairie Evaporite potash mapping; eastern Alberta remains largely unevaluated.

DATASETS THAT TEST THE TARGET

Stack these layers on the integrated map

Discriminating datasets first, then every catalogued public dataset tagged to this commodity. Verified endpoints draw directly; link-only entries open the publisher page.

• Prairie Evaporite / Lotsberg salt thickness (publication)Alberta Geological Survey · Structure, depth & isopach · link onlyThick, undissolved halite is the target for solution mining and caverns and the seal for CO2 storage; dissolution edges control McMurray karst collapse.Source ↗
• 3D Provincial Geological Framework: Precambrian subcrop zonesAlberta Geological Survey · Structure, depth & isopach · drawable · verifiedEntry point to the provincial 3D framework: which Paleozoic zone sits on basement controls helium traps, brine aquifers and storage seals.Source ↗
• Lithium in groundwater & formation water (DIG 2019-0029)Alberta Geological Survey · Brine & lithium · drawable · verifiedThe primary lithium screening layer: filter above 50 mg/L and overlay reef aquifer extents.Source ↗
• Canadian gravity anomaly grids (GDR WMS, offline during sweep)Natural Resources Canada – Geoscience Data Repository · Gravity · link onlyDense basement blocks and mafic intrusions (Ni-Cu-PGE), evaporite thickness lows, and arch geometry for helium traps.Source ↗
• Airborne radiometric K / U / Th grids (GDR, link only)Natural Resources Canada – Geoscience Data Repository · Radiometrics · link onlyDirect uranium and potash-brine surface expression; basement heat production proxy for helium and geothermal.Source ↗
• Metallic & industrial minerals agreementsAlberta Energy and Minerals · Mineral tenure · drawable · verifiedLithium, salt, silica, limestone and metallic tenure; about 2 million ha are under lithium leases.Source ↗

VALUE & VALUE CHAIN

Potash (KCl) World Bank: US$348/t (2025) → US$390 (2026f) → US$365 (2027f)

Brazil Q2 2026 ≈US$445/t

Nutrien shipments: ≈74.5 Mt (2025); 74–77 Mt 2026; growth 2–3 %/yr

Flat fertilizer price in the Atlas deck.

Value chain

1. Solution mining or brine recovery
2. Crystallization to KCl
3. Rail to Vancouver / US Midwest
4. Fertilizer blending

Industries and products that rely on it

DEMAND & PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS

What the forecasts say

• World BankKCl US$390/t 2026, easing to US$365 in 2027World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, Apr 2026 ↗

Key risks

• No resource
• Price undercut by Saskatchewan expansions
• Deep, thin beds

DEVELOPMENT: TENURE, ROYALTY, PERMITTING

What a developer needs to know

Tenure

Metallic & Industrial Minerals Tenure Regulation (AR 265/2022): permit — exclusive exploration right, indefinite term, no rent, $625 fee, assessment work $7/ha (first 2 years) → $13 → $20/ha; lease — 15-year initial + 15-year intermediate term, indefinite while producing, $3.50/ha rent. Potash may also be captured by brine-hosted leases where recovered from formation water.

Royalty

Potash is listed as a quarriable mineral in AR 350/93 without a stated per-tonne rate; brine-recovered potassium may fall under the $0.45/t salt royalty (unverified).

Lead time

10+ years to a solution mine

Permitting path

1. AER Directive 091 (rock-hosted minerals) under the Mineral Resource Development Act, in force Feb 2024
2. EPEA approval and Water Act licence
3. Public Lands Act surface disposition on Crown land
4. Indigenous consultation via the Aboriginal Consultation Office

Infrastructure needs

• Solution mining wells
• Evaporation / crystallization plant
• Rail

Active players

Recommended next steps

• Core and gamma-log review of Prairie Evaporite upper members in east-central Alberta
• Brine potassium resource study co-produced with lithium DLE

MINES, PILOTS & PROJECTS (0)

Who is already working this commodity in Alberta

No operating mine, pilot or advanced project is tracked for this commodity in Alberta.