Geothermal heat & power

POTENTIAL & KNOWN RESERVES IN ALBERTA

Leduc 4.06 trillion GJ heat in place; Swan Hills 1.86 trillion GJ; Granite Wash 0.52 trillion GJ

Confidence: Regional estimate

• Leduc Formation66 GW gross thermal; 8.97 GW gross electricalAGS Geothermal Atlas IAM-016 ↗
• Swan Hills / Slave Point36.8 GW thermal; 7.0 GW electricalAGS IAM-016 ↗
• Generation7.5 GWh (2024); ≈1.7 GWh (2025); AER forecast 76.2 GWh by 2034AER ST98 2026 — geothermal ↗
• Gradient23–50 °C/km, average 33.2 °C/kmAGS geothermal gradient ↗

Where it occurs

• Hinton–Edson (Eavor-Loop, Latitude 53 greenhouse)
• Greenview / Grande Prairie (Alberta No. 1)
• Swan Hills (FutEra 21 MW hybrid)
• Rainbow Lake (E2E 50–100 MW plan)
• Peace River Arch hot aquifers

Official reserve pins on the map

• Leduc Formation heat in place4.06 trillion GJ (8.97 GW el gross) · Resource estimate · 2021AGS Geothermal Atlas IAM-016 ↗

Live Atlas valuation (reference scenario)

1 subsurface asset priced by the Atlas engine: economic value $827M. Move the Scenario Laboratory sliders on the map to reprice.

• Foothills / Sedimentary Basin Heat Flow Anomaly620 MW in place · recoverable $868M · economic $827M (95% clears break-even)

GEOLOGY: WHAT MAKES A DEPOSIT MORE LIKELY

Hot sedimentary aquifers in Devonian carbonates and basal clastics; closed-loop and EGS targets in hot brittle basement.

Host formations

Leduc · Swan Hills / Beaverhill Lake · Granite Wash · Precambrian basement (EGS / closed loop)

Depth range

3K–6K m

Favourable conditions

• Gradient above 35 °C/km with 4–6 km of sediment (Hinton–Edson, Peace River Arch)
• Permeable reef or Granite Wash aquifers yielding over 80 kg/s at 87–123 °C (3.1–4.1 km)
• Basement above 180 °C in western Alberta with high unconfined strength (brittle)
• Dense legacy well control that de-risks drilling

Prospectivity envelopes on the map (1)

• Deep basin thermal maximum (Hinton–Fox Creek–Grande Prairie)Highly favourable
  Hot sedimentary aquifer (Leduc, Swan Hills, Granite Wash) and closed-loop targets · 3K–5K m
  • Geothermal gradient 35–45 °C/km with Devonian aquifers > 120 °C below 3,500 m
  • Permeable reef carbonates or basal Granite Wash for conventional doublets
  • Dense well control lowers drilling risk; Eavor-Loop demonstrates closed loop near Hinton
  Source: AGS Geothermal Atlas of Alberta; Alberta No.1 (Greenview) and Eavor projects.

DATASETS THAT TEST THE TARGET

Stack these layers on the integrated map

Discriminating datasets first, then every catalogued public dataset tagged to this commodity. Verified endpoints draw directly; link-only entries open the publisher page.

• Subsurface temperature points (BHT-derived)Alberta Geological Survey · Geothermal · drawable · verifiedThermal gradient for geothermal doublets and for DLE kinetics in lithium brines; basement temperature grids exist as LERC tiles.Source ↗
• 3D Provincial Geological Framework: Precambrian subcrop zonesAlberta Geological Survey · Structure, depth & isopach · drawable · verifiedEntry point to the provincial 3D framework: which Paleozoic zone sits on basement controls helium traps, brine aquifers and storage seals.Source ↗
• 3D PGF depth-to-Precambrian grid (LERC, link only)Alberta Geological Survey · Structure, depth & isopach · link only · verifiedBasement depth controls geothermal gradient, helium source proximity and basin-centred gas pressure.Source ↗
• Active producing wells (Alberta Energy Geoview)Alberta Energy and Minerals · Wells · link only · verifiedWhere hydrocarbons are flowing today: live reservoir pressure, produced-water (brine) access, helium-bearing gas streams and infrastructure for re-entry.Source ↗
• Geothermal agreements (live)Alberta Energy and Minerals · Mineral tenure · drawable · verifiedWhere geothermal rights have been staked.Source ↗
• Precambrian magnetic basement domains (AGS)Alberta Geological Survey · Aeromagnetics · drawable · verifiedCraton architecture for diamonds (thick cold lithosphere), radiogenic basement for helium, and shear zones for uranium and gold.Source ↗

VALUE & VALUE CHAIN

AESO pool price: C$43.68/MWh (2025 average); C$32.15 Q1 2026

AER geothermal supply cost C$236–278/MWh

Power-linked: the electricity slider moves geothermal value; heat sales to industry are priced off gas displacement.

Value chain

1. Deep doublet or closed-loop well pair
2. ORC binary plant or direct heat
3. Grid / industrial heat / greenhouse / data centre

Industries and products that rely on it

DEMAND & PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS

What the forecasts say

• AER76.2 GWh by 2034 (26 % CAGR, cut 35 % from prior outlook)AER ST98 2026 — geothermal ↗
• IEAGeothermal could meet 15 % of global power demand growth to 2050IEA Future of Geothermal ↗

Key risks

• Pool-price volatility
• Drilling cost and reservoir productivity
• Competition from wind, solar and gas
• Policy on data-centre self-supply

DEVELOPMENT: TENURE, ROYALTY, PERMITTING

What a developer needs to know

Tenure

Geothermal Resource Tenure Regulation (1 Jan 2022): 5-year lease, maximum 9 sections; Crown owns heat below the base of groundwater protection.

Royalty

No geothermal royalty regulation published as of Oct 2026.

Lead time

3–5 years for a 10–20 MW project

Permitting path

1. AER Directive 089 (well and facility)
2. AUC approval for power export
3. Water Act for non-closed systems

Infrastructure needs

• Deep rigs
• ORC plant
• Transmission interconnection or on-site load

Active players

Recommended next steps

• Pair data-centre load with Hinton–Edson gradients
• Use the AGS temperature model to rank doublet targets by kg/s × °C
• Track ERA drilling-technology and Eavor-Jules results

MINES, PILOTS & PROJECTS (4)

Who is already working this commodity in Alberta

• Alberta No. 1 geothermal (Greenview)Geothermal · Terrapin / No. 1 Geothermal LP · 10 MWe + 985 TJ/yr heat plannedPermitting (2026)Seeking equity; 4 km wells into Leduc / Granite Wash.Source ↗
• FutEra Swan Hills geothermal–gas hybridGeothermal · FutEra Power (Razor / AIMCo) · 21 MW hybrid; Canada's only geothermal power plantOperating (2026)Closed-loop pilot funded C$5 M by ERA (Mar 2026).Source ↗
• Eavor-Lite closed-loop demo (Rocky Mountain House)Geothermal · Eavor Technologies · Demo 2019–2024; commercial Eavor-Loop in Germany (Dec 2025)Closed (recent) (2026)C$8 M ERA award (Jul 2026) for Eavor-Jules superhot drilling.Source ↗
• Latitude 53 geothermal greenhouse (Hinton)Geothermal · Novus Earth · ≈3 MWe + greenhouse heatPermitting (2026)Named by AER as a growth project.Source ↗