Hydrogen (blue, gas-derived)

POTENTIAL & KNOWN RESERVES IN ALBERTA

2.6 Mt/yr (2025) → 4.4 Mt/yr by 2035; feedstock is 136 Tcf proved gas plus 79 Gt pore space

Confidence: Measured

• 2025 production≈2.6 MtGrey 2.2 Mt; blue 0.5 MtAER ST98 2026 — hydrogen ↗
• Break-even costGrey C$1.29–1.35/kg; blue C$1.95–2.00/kg; green C$4.40–6.19/kgAER ST98 2026 — hydrogen ↗
• Air Products Edmonton1,500 t/d net-zero complex under construction (Apr 2026)Start date revised; unverifiedAir Products, Apr 2026 ↗

Where it occurs

• Industrial Heartland (Scotford, Air Products, Linde / Dow)
• Pembina–Marubeni 1 Mt/yr blue ammonia proposal
• Suncor / ATCO 300 kt/yr
• Hydrogen Canada Corp 500 t/d (2028)

Live Atlas valuation (reference scenario)

2 subsurface assets priced by the Atlas engine: economic value $1T. Move the Scenario Laboratory sliders on the map to reprice.

• Wabamun Pore Space (Edmonton / Industrial Heartland)4.2K Mt CO2 in place · recoverable $88B · economic $88B (100% clears break-even)
• Lotsberg / Prairie Salt Caverns120K Mt in place · recoverable $1T · economic $914B (77% clears break-even)

GEOLOGY: WHAT MAKES A DEPOSIT MORE LIKELY

Autothermal or steam-methane reforming with 90–95 % CO2 capture to deep saline storage; natural (white) hydrogen not yet identified in Alberta.

Host formations

Montney / Deep Basin gas feed · Basal Cambrian Sandstone CO2 storage · Lotsberg salt caverns for storage

Depth range

0–2K m

Favourable conditions

• AECO gas under C$3/GJ
• Sequestration hub within 30 km
• Salt caverns for buffer storage
• Anchor demand from refineries, fertilizer, crackers

Prospectivity envelopes on the map (1)

• Industrial Heartland blue-hydrogen clusterProducing / drill-proven
  Autothermal / steam-methane reforming with CO2 capture to Basal Cambrian storage · 0–2K m
  • Cheap AECO gas, existing hydrogen pipeline network and salt-cavern storage
  • CCS pore space within 30 km (Quest, Atlas, Wabamun)
  • Anchor demand: Air Products net-zero complex, Dow Path2Zero crackers, refineries
  Source: Edmonton Region Hydrogen HUB.

DATASETS THAT TEST THE TARGET

Stack these layers on the integrated map

Discriminating datasets first, then every catalogued public dataset tagged to this commodity. Verified endpoints draw directly; link-only entries open the publisher page.

• Carbon sequestration agreementsAlberta Energy and Minerals · Mineral tenure · drawable · verifiedPore-space tenure that may conflict with helium and lithium rights in the same formations.Source ↗
• Prairie Evaporite / Lotsberg salt thickness (publication)Alberta Geological Survey · Structure, depth & isopach · link onlyThick, undissolved halite is the target for solution mining and caverns and the seal for CO2 storage; dissolution edges control McMurray karst collapse.Source ↗
• 3D Provincial Geological Framework: Precambrian subcrop zonesAlberta Geological Survey · Structure, depth & isopach · drawable · verifiedEntry point to the provincial 3D framework: which Paleozoic zone sits on basement controls helium traps, brine aquifers and storage seals.Source ↗

VALUE & VALUE CHAIN

Blue hydrogen premium: ≈C$0.65/kg over grey

TIER credits under C$20/t do not yet cover it

Gas- and carbon-linked: cost follows the AECO slider, value follows the carbon-price slider.

Value chain

1. Gas
2. ATR / SMR with capture
3. Pipeline network & caverns
4. Refining, ammonia, crackers, export ammonia

Industries and products that rely on it

DEMAND & PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS

What the forecasts say

• AER4.4 Mt/yr by 2035AER ST98 2026 — hydrogen ↗
• IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2025Low-emission H2 ≈4 Mt firm by 2030 (37 Mt announced)IEA GHR 2025 ↗
• CERCanadian low-emitting H2 >2.5 Mt by 2050CER Canada's Energy Future 2026 ↗

Key risks

• TIER credit price
• Export market for ammonia
• Upstream methane rules in importing markets

DEVELOPMENT: TENURE, ROYALTY, PERMITTING

What a developer needs to know

Tenure

No distinct tenure: gas under PNG royalties, CO2 under a Carbon Sequestration Agreement, caverns under salt leases.

Royalty

None on hydrogen; gas royalties apply to feedstock.

Lead time

4–5 years for a world-scale plant

Permitting path

1. AER facility licence
2. EPEA approval
3. Carbon sequestration agreement for captured CO2

Infrastructure needs

• H2 pipelines
• Salt caverns
• CO2 trunk line
• Rail / marine ammonia export

Active players

Recommended next steps

• Track Air Products commissioning
• Pair hydrogen demand with Lotsberg cavern prospectivity
• Model export ammonia under Japanese contract-for-difference schemes

MINES, PILOTS & PROJECTS (1)

Who is already working this commodity in Alberta

• Air Products Edmonton net-zero hydrogen complexHydrogen · Air Products · 1,500 t/d H2 with capture; start late 2027Construction (2026)Cost escalated to ≈US$3.3 B.Source ↗